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Playing limit Texas holdem, you have
finally flopped something good and
bet it out, and someone has raised
you. Of course, you want to punish
him, take more of his money, and
establish your proper place as Hero
of Poker, but how best do you do it?
Should you three-bet him now or wait
until the limits go up and
check-raise him on the turn? The
answer, of course, is, "It depends."
Let's take a look at the factors you
should consider when making this
decision:
• How many opponents are there?
• How vulnerable is your hand?
• Might your opponent want a free
card?
• Can a scare card come?
• Who is the raiser?
• What is your image?
How many opponents are there? The
more opponents there are still in
the hand, the more likely you should
be to three-bet on the flop. Many
opponents stay in, or try to, with
long-shot draws on the flop that
they will give up on the turn.
Collecting extra bets from them is
typically worth more on the flop
while they are still in to stand the
raises. Even better, if they have
called only one bet so far, a
reraise by you might get some of
them to fold a hand that might draw
out on you, potentially saving you
the whole pot.
Conversely, if you are heads up, the
extra money can come only from
collecting an additional large bet
instead of an additional small one.
While this difference should not
dominate your thinking as much as
the considerations below, it is
extra money. If you can go for it,
you should.
How vulnerable is your hand?
Having the best hand now does not
mean you'll win the pot. You must
survive two more cards. If you think
your hand might not hold up, you
might want to wait for the turn
before raising to see if you still
like your hand.
Let's look at a few quick examples.
You get a free play in the big blind
with the Q 4 and see a flop of Q 8
4. You bet out and are raised, which
narrows the field down to the two of
you. I would classify this hand as
vulnerable, but you have to decide
what the bad cards are. Clearly, an
8 is terrible. It counterfeits your
two pair, leaving you with queens
and eights. What else might be bad
for you?
Typical middle-limit opponents in
this situation would have raised
with A-Q, called with K-Q and Q-J,
and possibly folded with Q-10 or
worse. This makes a king or a jack a
likely dangerous card for you in
addition to the 8. It might be right
in this case to call on the flop,
planning to check-raise if a danger
card does not come, and check-call
or even fold if a bad card for you
does fall.
On the other hand, if you got the
free play in the blind with Q-8 and
bet out, I think you should
three-bet right now. Trying for a
check-raise also might work, but
there are still chances that your
opponent will check behind you (for
reasons we will discuss). In
addition, there is some chance that
your opponent will want to get into
a betting war on the flop, which he
rarely will want to do on the turn
unless he has you beat.
Might your opponent want a free
card? If you are going to wait for a
check-raise, you need to be fairly
sure your opponent will bet. The
more draws the board presents, the
more likely it is that your opponent
is raising for a free card, and he
will not bet when you check to him.
In this case, you must three-bet
right now. For example, if the board
on your Q 4 hand were Q 9 4, you
should probably three-bet instead of
wait to check-raise. (Some of you
would prefer to call and bet out if
a blank hits, but that is for
another column.) There is just too
much chance that if you call and
check, you will give up a free card
to a flush or straight draw.
Can a scare card come? Another
thing that might keep your opponent
from betting the turn would be a
scare card. A meaningless card to
both hands, but which looks like it
might have hit you, could foil your
check-raise plans.
Again, let's try an example. In the
big blind, you call a raise from a
tight opponent with the 8 7. The
flop comes 8 7 2. You bet out and
get raised, almost guaranteeing that
this particular opponent has a big
pair. There is probably nothing that
can come on the turn that will deter
this opponent from betting out, and
you would be correct to wait and
check-raise. Waiting becomes even
more profitable when you consider
that another deuce will counterfeit
your hand and save you money if it
does show up.
But suppose the flop were 8 7 6. You
still have top two pair, and there
is almost no chance that this
particular opponent has any kind of
straight draw. Now, however, if a 5
or 9 comes, your opponent will be
too scared to bet, so you will not
get a chance to check-raise. In this
case, then, you have to three-bet
now or risk having your opponent
shut down and give you no more
action if the wrong turn card hits.
Who is the raiser? As always, it
helps to know who your opponent is
and how he plays. Some players never
make a free-card raise, so you need
not consider that. Some players are
so aggressive that they will bet the
turn every time if they raised the
flop, regardless of what comes or
why they raised in the first place.
This behavior is especially common
in shorthanded games. Against such
players, you almost always should
wait for the turn and check-raise.
Conversely, some opponents are very
tricky and raise with all sorts of
hands, hoping you will fold now, or
they will get to see the river, and
perhaps even call it, for one more
big bet. Against these opponents,
you must get your raise in now and
take the lead.
What is your image? Opponents
take advantage of many timid,
passive players by raising them
frequently. Typically, these timid
players go into check-and-call mode,
unwilling to lay a hand down, but
unwilling to take any further
aggressive action without a near-nut
holding.
If you are one of these timid
players, or if you think you might
be perceived as such, play back on
the flop frequently. Do not wait for
the turn. Your long-term success
requires you to be seen as a force
to be reckoned with.
Going into a protective shell
whenever you get raised invites more
and more players to raise you with
impunity. After all, if you do not
reraise occasionally, the raiser
will figure that, at best, you will
fold, or, at worst, you will check
on the next street. You will
encourage opponents to raise you,
which is exactly the wrong thing to
do.
When you can, then, you should
three-bet on the flop with a good
hand so that people will not be able
to run over you. Waiting for the
turn, even when it works and you get
to check-raise, will still not be
seen as being as powerful as
reraising now.
Summary: Deciding which play to
make when you have a choice is often
very complex. Rarely does a single
consideration dominate, and you have
to consider many factors very
quickly. Few choices in holdem are
totally clear, and making the best
decision in these repeating
situations makes a lot of
difference.
You have seen the factors that
should enter your trade-off as you
decide what to do. I will, however,
offer a solution for those of you
who do not want to think about such
things (How did you get to the end
of this column?), or for those who,
after due consideration, do not see
a clear answer emerging: When in
doubt, put the money in now! |
