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After playing for about two and a
half hours in a late-night online
no-limit texas holdem
tournament, there were about 100
players remaining from the more than
600 who had started. We had reached
the "cruising stage," where most
hands consisted of a raise before
the flop and most or all players
folding.
On my $800 big blind, it was folded
around to the button, who made it
$1,600 to go. The small blind
folded. I held the 7 5. At this
stage of a tournament when the
blinds are large, it is generally
recommended not to defend your
blinds without a good hand, because
every chip you have may be critical
to your timing. As your chips
dwindle down to the critical
(minimum) level, you may be
pressured into playing a lesser
hand. Money you lost defending your
blind might have been better used to
wait one more round for a good hand.
However, I was familiar with the
player who raised, and believed I
had an edge; for example, if there
were no big cards in the flop, he
would be quite likely to fold to a
big bet. Since he always had a good
hand when he raised before the flop,
he would not likely be intimidated
by a "psychic" reraise (the term
"psychic" is borrowed from contract
bridge, and means "to create an
illusion of strength").
So, I made an admittedly speculative
call. But I got lucky and caught a
very good flop, the 8 4 and a 7,
which gave me a pair of sevens and a
gutshot straight-flush draw. So, as
the first to act, what would you do
in this position?
I went all in — which was probably
the wrong action unless I happened
to be playing against someone who
was likely to check if he had
nothing. My thinking was heavily
influenced by my desire to win the
hand quickly and go on to the next
hand before something bad happened.
I feared that if he had two
overcards, he might catch a pair on
the turn.
But it was rather unlikely that he
would both check after the flop and
catch a pair. That was a risk I
should have been willing to take.
After reviewing the statistics of
this situation, it appears that the
best action would have been to go
for the all-in check-raise.
Simulation of this situation (using
Caro's Poker Probe) indicated that
after that flop, I was about an 8-1
favorite against two overcards or
about a 5-1 favorite against two
overcards if one of them was a
heart. Even if my opponent had a big
pocket pair, I was still a slight
favorite (about 4-3 if he had no big
heart). In light of those numbers, I
probably should have been willing to
gamble just a bit to enhance my
winnings.
Otherwise put, if my opponent had
the likely two overcards, he
probably would folded to my all-in
bet. Whereas, if I checked, he
probably would make a bet with his
two overcards, and then fold to my
all-in check-raise.
As it turned out, it didn't matter
what I did, because all roads led to
our going all in. He held pocket
nines and called. But then I won
easily when a 6 gave me a straight
on the turn and a heart on the river
gave me a flush. How sweet it is
when lady luck smiles upon you.
When "cruising" in a large no-limit
texas holdem tournament, it is often
correct to "take out insurance" by
ending a hand quickly and
sacrificing some amount of extra
winnings to increase your likelihood
of surviving. But in retrospect, in
this situation, I think trying to
milk some extra chips by
check-raising was the best play.
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