This final piece
of the strategy brings the payback to 98.60%. While the nearly .2%
increase in payback may not sound like a lot, it will reduce the House
Edge ('vig') by better than 10%.
According to
Basic Strategy, you should bet 3x anytime you have a Pair of 10's or
Better. This ignores the Dealer's Upcard completely and is not taking
advantage of this benefit. We should be betting 3x ANYTIME the EV of the
hand goes positive, meaning we expect to win the hand more often than we
will lose the hand.
The strategy
presented below is different. The following Strategy goes a little
further. Through computer analysis, the following Expert Strategy has
been devised:
· Bet 3x on all
Pair of Aces or Better
· Bet 3x on all
Pair of Kings, except bet 1x if facing an Ace and you don't have an Ace
in your hand
· Bet 3x on a
Pair of Queens looking into a 2-Q. Bet 3x if Dealer has a K or Ace up,
and you have the Dealer's up-card in your hand
· Bet 3x on a
Pair of Jacks looking into a 2-J. Bet 1x if Dealer has an Ace up. If the
dealer has a Q or K up, Bet 3x if you have the Dealer's up-card in your
hand.
· Bet 3x on a
Pair of 10's looking into a 2-9, Bet 1x if Dealer has a J-Ace. If the
Dealer has a 10 up, and you have a Jack or Better kicker, bet 3x,
otherwise bet 1x.
· Bet 3x on a
Pair of 9's looking into a 2. All other Pairs of 9's, bet 1x.
The strategy
listed above is for the decision to bet 1x vs. 3x. The other decision
that needs to be made is when to fold vs. bet 1x. According to Basic
Strategy, you should bet 1x on all Pairs of 3's or better (except when
you bet 3x), and fold all Pairs of 2's. Expert Strategy will alter this,
as well, albeit only slightly. Again, through computer simulation, the
following strategy has been developed:
· Bet 1x on a
Pair of 2's looking into a 2
So, besides the
payback difference, where do these changes leave us in terms of what to
expect?
· We can expect
to fold just a little over 47% of the time. This is essentially
unchanged from Basic Strategy
· We can expect
to bet 1x just a little less than 24% of the time. This compares to just
under 22% of the time for Basic Strategy.
· We can expect
to bet 3x just a little under 29% of the time. This compares to just
under 31% of the time for Basic Strategy
The net result
is to shift about 2% of our wagers from 3x betting to 1x betting. By
doing this, we buy ourselves an additional .2% of payback. On average,
we also bet about a nickel less per hand based on a $5 ante bet, which
also helps to slow our loss rate over the long run.