Well, a few days ago I received my copy of Gambling Theory and Other Topics by Mason Malmuth. It is a book I've been planning on buying for a while but have put off. Gary recommended it to me so I figured what the hell.

Let me tell you, if you have not read this book, you can't call yourself a serious player (no offense to anyone, just trying to make a point). This book rockets to the top of my list of favorite poker books. And, the book covers other topics as well (BJ, etc.) so it is not just a poker manual. Actually, there isn't any info on how to play specific hands, etc. It outlines bankroll swings, lucky vs. unlucky, etc. It has a lot of math in it, but I like that so that's cool by me.

Anyway, I'm only up to page 120 out of approx 340 pages but it has been worth every penny. Here are some of the comments made in the text. I am trying to spark discussion here so please feel free to post your feelings on these statements.

"...only a small number of people are highly sucessful at gambling."

"...sucessful gambling is actually a balance of luck and skill."

"...most people who gamble a lot only rarely get the best of it, and their overall performance is almost always negative."

"...marginal (value) bets and raises --- where the real money is won in limit games."

"I believe that most sucessful gamblers are introverted. This is probably because they are using their minds and thinking instead of talking." (I love this one. Defintiely, one of my favorite quotes.)

"In limit poker, mistakes that cost you an extra bet or fail to get that extra bet for you are not always that important. ...However, mistakes that cost you the whole pot can be disastrous."

"...poor play - not a little bad luck - is usally the reason people steam."

I'm always looking for great books to read and I'm glad to see yet another positive recommendation for anything Mason writes.

To spark some conversation, it was posted here awhile back(perhaps by racer???) that your success at low limit is highly dependent on whether or not your draws hit. "Of course, you win more if your draws hit" you say, and I wholeheartedly agree, but finishing a session up or down, I have noticed at low limits, depends on your draws. Unless you have a very tight low limit table, people will play all sorts of crap and we never know whether our top pair, top kicker is in bad shape against Jack's and Two's from UTG when he checks and calls all the way. You need your draws to come through when 6 people stay for the turn to be profitable at these limits. Top pair with a real kicker just isnt good enough when 5-8 people see the flop.

I was at Luxor yesterday playing $2/4(yeah, yeah, I know I missed the final table, but I was in the room from 43 players to 9 wed and thurs) and despite the fact that several of the people seemed to at least have read a book or two, there were routinely 5+ people contesting the flop. I cant count how many times the flop was 8 handed. At a table like this, you just need the flop to hit you hard. The first 2-3 hours, I missed all my draws and sets and had them hit against me twice when I flopped top pair, top kicker against 2 opponents and three bet the flop both times. My stack was dwindling and very low before my raises started getting respect and I could see the flop with 2 other people and outplay them. Then my draws started hitting and I went up towards even. I finished the session down about 4 bets, but was down more than 25 at one point. I wasnt playing badly, my draws just werent hitting against 6 opponents. I started playing AXs from early since I could count on having enough callers to get the correct odds; this was also a deceptive play against the people who expected me to play by the book. I was raised and called after a rerasie on the river with the nuts by an overpair who had no idea what I was doing in EP with AXs. With a neutral table image, I'm starting to limp more out of position with good drawing hands since you almost always get the correct odds. This is a marginal play at best, but when you hit, you get paid off, and you get more action when you get a real EP hand(ie AA,KK).

I found Mason's book had the answer to the question that I wanted to know from day one: How bad can the swings get. One of the most important things this book offers is the formulas that give you answers that can be applied to nearly any situation or game.

I read some of Phil's book and decided to buy it as well. I disagree with some of it, but I do like some of his ideas(intermediate and advanced) that stand in contrast to S&M/Ciaffone type thinking about limit. This kind of book could help you switch gears and mix up your play in tough games or normal games where players are prone to tilt.

Hitting draws is very important for overall winning at low limits. The beauty of it is, you are almost always garaunteed the the odds to go for it with 6+ players seeing the flop. Problem is throwing away top pair when you know it isn't any good anymore

I know what you mean about playing hands such as Ax(s) from early position. This is playable provided you have a good read on the table (read: raise is unlikely and there is always 5+ players seeing a flop). Pacific is the epitome of where position goes out the window. Drawing hands can be played from alomst any position. However, one thing I have been thinking about recently in regards to starting hand requirements is that some hands hit so rarely, positional play helps to save money in the long run. Take Ax(s). You only hit 2 more of your suit on the flop 1 in 8 times. Even when you hit, you don't always make your flush (34.97% of hitting by river). The question is, can you make enough on the times that hit to cover the times it doesn't?

This is a marginal play at best, but when you hit, you get paid off, and you get more action when you get a real EP hand(ie AA,KK).

You make an excellent point here. The point of playing more marginal hands is not that you make money on those marginal hands...its that you make more money when the premium hands come based on your play of the marginal hands. This is a very dangerous area though as your play of the marginal hands must be near perfect or it could cost you in the long run. Sklansky makes his case for this in HFAP but I can't seem to find the exact quote right now.

Anyone else out there read Mason's book? I plan on posting details for determining bankroll and swings in the near future. In the meantime, here are a few more quotes I picked up today...

"Incidentally, typical players, even those who visit public cardrooms regularly, never fully realize the gap in skill that exists between them and the real experts"

"...very few players become good at more than one form of poker. But you should strive to become good at all major forms of (casino) poker."

I take pride in the fact that I never have to say "nice kicker" when I spike an Ace on the flop and call to the river to see AK/AQ. Given the read on my opponents and whether its an "any ace" game, I have no problem tossing my top pair out when the draw misses and an Ace hits. If I'm in EP and have a tight/aggressive image(which is nearly all of the time), I'll semibluff it, but get out of there at the first sign I'm beat.

I dont want to give the impression that AXs is on my playable list from EP, but I will play it once in awhile if I'm sure 5 other people will limp and stay for a bet when the draw hits. Just as important as that, as you pointed out, is knowing whether others at the table realize you are making a mistake limping from EP if you show it down.  ¶ 2:59 PM

  It was my birthday last Wednesday, and I arranged for my friends from university to come down and hit up the local casino (Brantford Charity Casino) and bars on Friday night. A few came early in the afternoon and we went for a couple of hours while waiting for the others to get off work and drive down.

I got a seat within 15 minutes of getting my name on the list for the $5/$10. I'm going to post some hands I remembered the most.

The first hand I played was Ts8s, and I flopped the nuts (rainbow). I check/call. The turn is a 5 and it makes the straight look more obvious but I still got the nuts and can sucker the guy with an 8. I check-raise, and get one caller. The river is a T, and I check-call. The guy has Jd8d for the higher straight(nuts).

This time I pick up Jacks and raise preflop in late position. The flop is Q T 9, both good and ba for me. It's checked to me and I bet, get a few callers. The turn is a rag. I take the free card when it's checked to me. The river is another rag. A lady, who is an alright player, in middle position stares at me for a bit for a read (or because of my good looks) and bets. At first I think she has a pair of queens, but then I sensed weakness because she had to stare me down with top pair if she had it. I call and she has king high (missed straight draw).

I pick up 87 on the button and make a position raise preflop, there's a few callers. The flop is A87, nice!! They check to me and I bet, they call. The turn is an A. I bet and they fold under the impression I had an ace. I showed my hand to let everyone know I didn't have an ace, I don't want to be predictable.

I pick aces in middle position and raise, and get some callers. The flop is king high rainbow, I couldn't ask for more. I check-call. The turn is an ace, I check-raise. The river is a blank. I check-raise, and beat AK. $2 tip

I pick up aces right before the button gets to me. Drats!! There's only a couple of limpers, so I just call. The flop is jack high, I check-call. The turn is a Q, I check-raise. I bet the river, and win. $2 tip

I gave that dealer who dealt me aces twice $4.50 when I left. I ended up $225 richer in about two hours.

After the rest of my friends got here, we decided to go again around 2:00am because it's not as busy then. I got my name on the list before we went to the bar/strip club, and when we got there I was next on the list. Awesome timing!! Here is the big hand for the night:

The second hand I play I pick up KcTc and limp in from middle position, there is a raise and a lot of callers including myself (big pot). The flop is QcJcXx. I check-call, and there's a good amount still in. The turn is a rag club. I check-raise and there's still a few left. The river is Ac, I checked my cards to make sure I made THE hand. I bet and get one caller. After I showed, everyone was congratulating me on my big nuts. I dragged a ~$200 pot there. No casino bonus for the royal though. I gained instant respect from everyone at the table though. This one dude was telling every newcomer tot he table about the hand.

This one guy two to the right of me was getting cards his way for the next few laps of the button. He folded maybe once per lap of the button, and only lost like a third of the hands he played. That was bad for my top pair top kicker or two pair hands against him. Here's a hand where it was me and him, and I unsuccessfully tried bluffing:

I pick up Ad4d in the SB and call. The flop is Axx, two hearts. I check-call his bet, there's a few others in. I know he has an ace and most likely a better kicker. The turn is a blank, I check-call again and it's heads up now. I decide that I want to try bluffing him if another heart falls. A heart falls, and I check-raise. He flips over his hand without calling my raise, and I'm thinking that it worked because he had AT and was showing me a big laydown. The dealer tells him he didn't call the raise, he says "Oh sorry, I didn't see him raise." He throws in $10 and I muck saying "You got me." Everyone around the table was like "I thought you had the flush" because they wanted that guy to lose for once.

I ended up losing $160 in a few hours.

Overall, it was a fun day and I finished the day up $65. If I had cashed out after that royal flush I would be up $300+ for the day. Oh well.

One the hand with a straight flush draw you generally want to bet and raise the flop instead of the turn as you are a favorite on the flop, but an underdog on the turn. You also don't want to consistantly check-call. check-raise. You get just as much money by 3-betting the flop, and betting the turn and river, plus you occasionally will get three bets on the turn when they bluff-raise you and you have a good hand.

When that guy showed his hand before he bet or called your raise, his hand is dead and should not of been allowed to win the pot. Next time say something to the dealer immediatly, that should of been your pot. Alot of dealers even though they know the rules dont want to rock the boat. There are rules for a reason, and I seriously doubt it was an honest mistake buy that guy.

actually in heads up play, limit holdem his hand is not dead. You are allowed to show your hand if its heads up. I have seen this one guy play his hand face up after the turn. And someone asked about it, and the dealer at the mirage said it was ok since it was heads up.   ¶ 2:57 PM

  People often ask how much of a bankroll they need to play a certain game. I am currently reading Mason Malmuth's Gambling Theory book and decided to post what I have learned. Here goes...

First thing you need to know is your standard deviation. 10 sessions is the absolute minimum to determine this but 30 is recommended. The easiest way to figure this out is to go to Poker Charts and log your sessions. The website is kind enough to determine SD for you . I tried to enter the actual equations but I had a hard time getting all of the symbols to line up correctly when viewed in this forum. If you are really curious about the equations, buy Mason's book.

There is another point I would like to make before we move on. Here is a quote from MM's book: "The standard deviation is a statistical measure of dispersion, and most statisticians agree that for all practical purposes, the total population of possible results is contained within 3 standard deviations"

Next, you will need your win rate. This can be obtained by keeping accurrate records, or once again, using Poker Charts.

Now, the next equation will give you how long you must play in order to assure a win. Note that I have added some intermediate calculations here since I can't get a damn thing to display correctly on the page.

x = (3)(Standard Deviation)

# of hours = (x/win rate)^2

For example, I just checked my stats on Poker Charts for my 5/10 game. I only have 15 5/10 sessions but that is enough to generate some numbers. My SD is $48.30/hr and my win rate is $6.34/hr. So, in order to ensure a profit, I need to play:

522 hours = ((3*48.30)/6.34)^2

As a side note, here is another quote from Mason's book: "At the middle limits, we discovered that the expert's standard deviation could be as low as six big bets per hour. This was about half that of a typical player, and a bad player could be much higher."

To find the minimum bankroll to ensure not going broke, use the following 2 equations:

SD = Standard Deviation
WR = Win Rate

N = ( (3*SD)/(2*WR) )^2

LL = (WR*N)-(3*SD*N)^(1/2)

As an example, here are my numbers for my 5/10 game:

N = ( (3*48.3)/(2*6.34) )^2 = 130

LL = (6.34*130)-(3*48.3*130)^(1/2)

or $687

Now, this number seems WAY too low to me. The only thing I can figure is that my SD is much lower than typical. This means I am more consistent, but I don't think this is a good thing at this point (or maybe it is). As you can see, I am not even hitting 1 BB/hr after 15 sessions of 5/10. But, 15 sessions doesn't really tell you crap anyway. Also, my total hours for 5/10 are only 62. This is about right as I usually play 4 hour sessions for 5/10.   ¶ 2:56 PM

  It's sometime amazing the swings you have in Poker. I play mainly Hold'em ($5/$10 to $10/$20) and Stud (2-6 Spread). At the beginning of May, I couldn't lose. I would only play premium hands because thats all I was seeing. I'd walk away from the $10/$20 table up over $700 in a matter of a couple of hours. My bankroll grew by over $2000 in a short 2 weeks of play.

And then it happened - my cards started to suck about 2 weeks ago. For instance, I sat patiently at a $6/$12 game yesterday for 4 hours taking small pots and waiting for big hands. Then I was dealt AK 3 times within 30 minutes with it never holding up - QQ cracked by KK, 88 cracked by 99 etc.

Now the $2000 I previously won now looks like $200. Furthermore, I did something I normally never do and that's buy some new toys out of the poker fund. So, in other words, my bankroll is starting to look very small.

I planned on playing $10/$20 Hold'em for 5 days in Vegas. Now it looks like I'll be playing $4/8 and $5/10.

Any suggestions on which card gods to pray to in the mean time. I have to turn my cards around.

Play tight and move down limit. Better to phave funds to play for the planned period you're there then bust out early. Also your bankrtoll wasn't exactly big for those limits to begin with.

You are correct that the swings will make a man out of you (or a crying little baby huddled in the corner in the fetal postion LOL )

I posted about a week ago how I hit 2 SFs in one week. I had a really good week and made about $700 live. This week...LOL...cold deck city. I am definitely paying for it now. I think I have only logged 1 winning session this week and that was live, online is dead. So yes, good runs are followed by bad ones and we just have to deal with it.

As for the AK cracked 3 times in 30 minutes...I can beat that. About 3 or 4 weeks ago I had a session where I got AK 5 times in one hour...cracked every time. I lost 30 BB in 3 hours. Ah yes, nothing like driving 1 hour and 40 minutes each way to play for 3 hours and hit your loss limit (I have one).

As for buying toys out of your bankroll, you should know better than that . That's poker money man, not impress the honeys with my new car money LOL.

As for praying to the gods, I gave that up a long time ago. I deduced they all hated me so now I just hate them back.

What I will recommend is dropping down in limits. This is hard for most people to do. Without knowing your standard deviation and win rate, I can't calculate what type of a bankroll you need. But, by the sounds of it, if you stay at 10/20, you run a high risk of going broke in the future. Mason Malmuth suggests that if you are capable of dropping back a limit when you have depleated 1/2 of your bankroll, you can reduce your starting bankroll req'ts by 40%.

I plan on posting the details of figuring bankroll req'ts in the near future. In the meantime, a good rule of thumb is 300 BB. But even this may be too small once you see the math.

I was real cold decked late last-month and early this month, and my limit game has not really seen good cards since then. One thing that has helped me, albeit on the net and not live, is tourney play. My favorite is the $15 NL nightly at Pacific, with $10K guaranteed payout. I won $1500 for 2nd place ( lost 1st on a bad beat:( ), and have made the money a few other times.

TJ says tourneys with a 50-1 or greater payout ratio are the best moneymakers. Well, $2500 for 1st place makes these ~150-1.   ¶ 2:53 PM

  First of all congrats to Greg Raymer for winning the main event at the WSOP with by far the most players ever. What an amazing feat. From what I understand, Greg also won his seat at pokerstars so his story, like Moneymaker's, should lure more skeptical players online. I actually hope they raise the buy-in next year to limit the field a bit.

Congrats to Angel for becoming a celebrity by dealing the WSOP and especially the final table. Angel's poker storys would make a great book. I look forward to hearing some of the things he learned during this experience and to seeing him deal on ESPN.

This week I set two new personal records, both not the kind you want.

Thurs: I win 343 in 3 hours with the main hand my nut straight vs a one card straight where my opponent thought he had the nuts and capped the turn.

Friday: My first 4 hour session I missed several draws, incorrectly called someone down light and had a failed bluff attempt. I also had a player to my right who was going to lose his entire 700 buy-in and I could not win a hand and did not win a hand the last two hours.-420

The second 4 hours I started getting outdrawn with big hands...sets, trips, ect. Not only do I get hammered, but somehow through a bug in the software I am forced to post the big blind twice in two hands which adds insult to injury..lol.-408.

Sat: Was cruzing along until I got my nut flush castrated on the river. +38.

Sun: I lose a 400 dollar pot to a rivered two outer, but pull out of the hole in a short game with a minirush. +329.

Mon: Today my high pockets lost every time and I missed an incredible eight open ended draws in a row. I lost every hand for a record three hours and 22 minutes, but what makes it so bad is that I was not card dead. I just kept missing draws and getting outdrawn. When the smoke had cleared, I was stuck a personal high 1059 in a single day.
One thing I remember from TJ's book is that he says how you need to show down some winners to be able to bluff. I agree 100%. I often see otherwise solid players overcall against extremely unlucky players looking to hit like everyone else has. I think in close decisions against reasonable players who are losing, you can usually rule out bluffing(unless your opponent's on tilt).

Tues: I make a nice laydown with a beat set of cowboys today. I struggle with one pair laydowns when I'm raised on the turn and river. I have a system that saves bets in the long run, but it is so hard for me to lay down a good hand, so I'm inconsistant in its application. My discipline needs work. I am surprised after yesturday that I can win some hands and make some plays and hit some draws. +533.

Wed: I played at another site and I had a weird hand come up where a solid player cold-calls and ends up beating my AA with 27o. There was someone else in the hand, raising the flop, so I reported it as possible collusion. Could be someone just playing around, but I don't think it was. I hit a couple sets and ended the day up 308 but losing 336 on the week.

One more thing about the TJ book. He says he often is exhausted after focusing so hard on his opponents play during a tourney. I believe that focusing on my opponents helps me quite a bit. For example, online you will often be in a game with a horrible player who you will never play with again. The faster you know about that player, the more money you will make. But I do not focus to the point of exhaustion. In fact, on a scale from one to ten, I would say I'm about a 6.5 and when I played two games I was about a 2. I need to work on building my concentration and focus.

Have a good week.   ¶ 2:51 PM

  Well for those of you who dont know, I was in Vegas for the WSOP from May 18-29. Let me say one thing first... WoW. Absolutely unbelievable. The place was an absolute zoo. And I cant wait to go back next year.

So everyone can catch up, a buddy of mine and I decided to fly out about 3 days before we left, on the 15th. Another friend of mine who was already in town decided we should stay with him, so as far as lodging was concerned, we were golden. The funny thing is though, I didnt even know where we were staying until we got there. The Las Vegas club. Fuck. Oh well. $39 a night split three ways is a damn good price, and its location is ideal for the WSOP. (Right across from Binions)

So here I am, in WASHINGTON, and I cant believe I only brought $2900 with me to fucking Vegas. What was I gonna play? Well as soon as we land I am in a casino. On the Strip, at the Mirage. The only game I'm interested in is the $20-$40 game, and I immediately sit down. I start off pretty hot, and have the game beat for around $700, before I give it all back plus $300, and for my fist 3 hours in Vegas, I am already stuck. So fuck the $20-$40 at the Mirage. We go to Binions.

So what to play? What to play? Hmmm.... Well my options are pretty limited, (more on this later) I finally decide to play in a $525 satellite. This is when I meet Patty Gallagher. What a firecracker she is. (For those who dont know, Patty took 3rd in the $5000 Limit Hold Em' event and when busted promptly gave each of the two remaining players the bird) Anyways, she gets busted with 2c3c and I make it to the final three. All about even in chips, I get my money in with AK vs. KT and get relieved of my chips when the Ts hits the flop. And now I'm stuck $800.

Well Fuck me.

The next day I play in a $5-$10 NL game, and wouldn't you know it, Puggy Pearson sits into the game. (He's on the $50-$100 stud hi/lo list, so he doesn't play long) However, I do play an interesting hand with him. In MP Puggy raises to $50, and with 2 cold callers in front of me, I call with the two Black 8's on the button. The flop [8h-8d-9d] is pretty good... and he bets $75. Both players call so I flat-call on the button with quads. The turn card [7s] gets checked around, and on the river [4s] Puggy bets $150. The two cold callers fold, and I raise to $300. He calls me with AK, and gives me a quick glance as I turn my hand over. Nice.

Ok Ok so I am going nowhere here I know. But I was having fun. I played some $40-$80 at the Mirage with Gavin Griffin. (If he is reading this, I am the guy who flat called 4 bets cold with an open ender in the pot that got chopped 4 ways. And I was REALLY short stacked, so I was looking for something to happen) And I played some PLO with O' Neil Longston. Let me say this, $5-$10-$20 PLO is one helluva game. And was my most profitable for the trip.

In the PLO game above, the $20 refers to the winner of the previous pot, who has to post a forced $20 blind no matter where he is in relation to the button. It creates a lot of action. Anyways, I pick up AhKd8d8s and call a $60 raise in the BB. The flop of [Kc-8h-7h] is pretty good for my hand, and with about $2000 in front of me, I am looking to win a decent sized pot, but am worried about the potential draws out there. The SB checks, I check, and a Very good player, bets the pot. The player on his immediate left re-raises the pot from the cutoff seat, and it is folded to me. I think for awhile (I think the re-raiser has a wrap draw to the staright with a shitty heart draw, since I have the Ah and a K, I'm not worried about set over set) I re-raise the pot and me and the Cutoff seat get All-In. He shows 5s6h7cKh. (In PLO, when two players are all in, you can decide to run the turn and river cards twice, thus producing two seperate outcomes. In order to scoop the pot, you must win both times. If you win one and lose one, you split, and if you lose lose, you get scooped) With his heart draw and open ender against my set, it is a good time to run it twice, we do, and my set of eights hold up both times. Nice little double up eh?

Ok ok so I am rambling. Let me tell you some of the Fun Facts about the trip.
#1) Watched Phil Ivey play heads up $30,000-$60,000 and $50,000-$100,000. He had four racks of $25,000 chips in front of him, and one rack of $5000 chips. Thats right.... do the math.... 10.5 mil.
#2) Talked to Chip Reese for a while at the Golden Nugget. He was playing the $4000-$8000 mixed games, and we ran into eachother on the way to the bathroom and chatted awhile. (He asked how I was doing? I'm playing 1/2 PLO-1/2 PLH, he's playing $4000-$8000, he really cares?...lol)
#3) Sweated Mike Matusow the whole first day of the WSOP. He was telling me about some of his hand, and what he was thinking, he started on what was easily the worst table to start on, they only lost one player all day. But he did say that had I shopwed up just a day earlier, he would have put me in the WSOP, if only he could have...
#4) Watched Sammy Farha (whose girl is unbelievable) play heads up PLO against Bobby Baldwin. With a twist. With $2000-$4000 blinds, Sammy gave Bobby the button on EVERY hand. And Bobby had to give him 20% of his money back if Farha lost. And lost he did. $500,000 the first night. Ouch.
#5) Met PokerAngel. That was neat. Didn't get a chance to talk much, but he was a nice guy. Also, he was flawless at the final table. I was proud to say I knew him. (think parents at a junior high basketball game screaling "thats my kid!")
#6) Tried to talk Johnny Chan into playing the $20-$40 game I was playing at the Nugget. To no avail, however.

Well anyways, skip ahead to the last day I was there, I go to the Bellagio with my buddy and the girl who won the WPO 2004 Stud Hi/Lo event and I play in the $80-$160 game and for as long as I played, I didn't do very good. In 5 hours. I made a whopping $180. How does Ben Stein say it? Wow.

So I make about $5000 for the trip, which all in all, was not too bad. I will be going to Commerce soon, for the Cal. St. Poker Championships, and I can't wait. Hopefully can do more than $5000 though.

And please, Fossilman, take off those stupid glasses. But great playing. And congrats.   ¶ 2:49 PM