This situation seems to come up a lot. Either on the river or the turn, a third card of the same suite comes down, and you hold a pretty good hand, like two pair or top pair with very good kicker.
I know it is a very subjective thing, but has anyone noticed any general way to figure out if they have the flush in their hand or if they are just bluffing at it?
generally the play on the turn is to bet the hand that don't have many outs, and check call hands that do have outs, if u have 2 pair check call, if u have top pair good kicker bet it....
Think back through the betting/calling of the player, and their overall tendency to bet/raise/call on the river. Also, do they tend to defy the odds and call to the river, or do they play poker that is defined by the odds?
For instance, many times, a player will quickly call a bet on the flop or turn with a flush draw (you see this tell both in live games and on-line)...this is where it is useful to get a baseline of behavior on the other player when you are not in the hand. If you notice that they will quickly call a bet on the flop/turn, then fold to a bet if the third card of a suit does not show up on the board on the river, or if they happen to show their hand at showdown, this is good information to note.
Sometimes, bad players will call all the way to the river with nothing but a flush draw in a heads-up pot (meaning the pot odds likely do not justify this play)...is your opponent this type of player, or would he have to also have a pair along with his flush draw to make this play?
Overall, though, just look at the player's river play. Does he ever call bets without a hand? Does he ever bluff on the river, or does he always bet/raise with the best hand? This information may help you save some money by helping you lay down two pair or even a set against this opponent's river bet/raise. However, also remember, that game theory dictates that you mix up the frequency with which you call versus fold bets on the river. To fold the best hand when it only costs you one more bet to see the showdown (thus giving away a nice pot) is much more disastrous than calling away an additional big bet with the potential to win a nice pot. That being said, there are times when it is obviously in your best interest to fold on the river...
