Paradise $10 SNG. Lately the cards have been running bad for me. I managed to steal some pots here and there in this tourney and my stack bounced from 700-1500 for the whole thing. We are down to four players and I'm in 3rd place. The top two stacks have over 4000 chips each, and I'm in a race for 3rd. The blinds are 250/500 so we are into the crapshoot phase of the tournament. I'm on the SB with 750 chips (after posting). The BB and UTG are the big stacks. The short stack is on the button with 540. UTG folds, button folds, and I have a sucker hand-pocket fours. What to do what to do?
If I wait two hands the small stack will be almost all in when he hits the BB. Folding will leave me with enough chips to make the blinds again.
I can't call because I know that whatever random cards the BB has, he's going to put me all-in anyway. The only choices I have are all-in with a slight advantage over any two random cards the BB has, or fold, hoping that the small stack will be blinded out. If I go all-in, I'm 99.99999% sure he will call. He has over 4000 chips, and doubling me up will in no way effect his chances of making it into the money.
So here is my line of reason. If I fold, what happens if the small stack gets AA next hand and doubles up? The blinds will get around to me before they get around to him again and I will be forced all in on the SB. At this point, if he wins any pot I could be done. If I fold, there's no guarantee I will get any sort of playable hand before I'm blinded out. The small stack doesn't even need a hand as good as AA. He could get lucky on the BB with any two random cards and double up leaving me screwed. If I go all-in here and win I will be up to 1750, allowing me to last another round and also giving me a shot at 2nd place if I happen to catch a rush of good cards.
I figure at this point in the tournament I could fold my way into the money, but it may backfire. I have a hand and it's time to make a stand. I push all in and get called by K6o. Yuck, I'm only a slight favorite over his two overcards. As always happens when I'm a short stack, the board gives him a straight to the nine and I'm done.
Was pushing all-in here correct? Before you answer, I know that if things were different I would fold without a second thought. For instance if I had at least enough chips to make it through the blinds again if the short stack doubled up I would simply fold and hope he didn't get lucky. Since I was so far behind the chip leaders and little more than 200 chips ahead of last place I felt I was in a bad situation. I didn't want to play the hand, but felt as if I had little choice.
That's a tough one, and I'm sure one that alot of people would play different so it may be hard to get a clear answer as to what the best move is.
First of all I do agree with you, I would go all-in or fold no need to call on that hand unless your going all-in.
I think it's tough but IMO if I was in that spot and fighting for a spot in the money I think I would have done this...
If I thought I had enough chips to outlast the other guy for 3rd than I would probably fold and take my chances that way, and if he does get lucky and double up than you just hope for the same and try to double up yourself with what ever you are forced to do it with, if you do than you should still be ahead of him.
Odds are against him even though as you said he could get AA but not likely and here's where his odds comes in IMO he has to go all-in on the next solid hand he gets and even though he could get something like AA or AK he's likely to go all-in before that hand pops up even if it was getting ready to.
Still wasn't a bad play and I'm not even saying it wasn't the right play because alot of people may play this different but I don't think this is one of those that you can say was a dumb move for doing it one way over the other.
Also for the record this is if your fighting for that 3rd spot and you being slightly ahead in chips over him and the fact that if he doesn't hit anything will be gone in just a few hands leaving you in the money.
If that 4th guy was already gone than to me it's a no brainer and I would have went all-in as well.
I think any pocket pair is a solid hand when late in the game/tourney and your way behind/close to the point of going all-in on anything solid...etc
Atleast if you got a pocket pair (no matter what they are) if he doesn't have a pocket pair than he atleast has to hit something to beat you. That's why I think pocket pairs are solid even if there 4's or 2's for that matter, if he doesn't have a pair in the whole as well he has to hit to beat you.
Sorry for the long post and not sure if any of this helped or not...lol
But just my thoughts on what I would have done.
