I have always maintained that in order to win a tournament you need a good mix of skill and luck. I think the SNG I played in yesterday is a good example of this.
Tournaments are very different from ring game play for three reasons: First, tournaments are short term. If you lose a big hand where you would normally have +EV in a cash game, you are still out of the tournament. In the short term luck is much more of a factor on your results. The second big difference in tournaments is the constantly rising blind structure. As the blinds and antes grow in relation to stack sizes the tournament starts to become more of a crap shoot. You are forced to play more hands and to try and steal more. Add to this the fact that as the tournament progresses the poor players bust out, so your opponents are getting better and better, therefore negating the edge you have to some degree. The third factor that contributes to tournament luck are all the intangible things you have no control over. Things like seating and table changes. Another "intangible" comes from the fact that every action in a tournament effects all of the players. Your standing can be greatly effected by hands you are not even involved with. When watching two players fight it out, you are often on the sidelines rooting for one guy or another.
So here I am on the bubble of this particular tournament. I have about 2800 chips and I'm in 3rd place. I'm in a good but not great position. The two chip leaders are close to each other in chip count, but both have me covered by about 1000 chips or more. The guy in 4th has 345 chips, and the blinds are 50/100. I'm thinking this is an easy money finish. The guy in 4th is just a few hands away from being blinded out.
Well this bubble turned out to be a war of attrition. Everyone was playing weak-tight, even the big stacks. This was good in some respect, because I was able to do enough blind stealing to keep my stack from shrinking. It was as if everyone was playing the waiting game, afraid to make any plays, and hoping someone would make a mistake. The guy in fourth was trying to fold his way to the money. If there was any action pre-flop, he would fold. He almost never saw a hand outside of the blinds. If he did, he went all-in. I usually had poor cards, and didn't want to risk doubling him up at my expense. I was really hoping one of the big stacks would step up and do the job for me, but alas every time he went all-in, he got the blinds. He even took the blinds a few times from the BB when it was folded to him. We played from 50/100 to 100/200 without any major action. The short stack bounced from between 300-800 chips.
Then it happened, the key hand where that "luck factor" kicked in. The short stack is on the button with 800 chips. I'm in the SB with 2400. The chip leader is on the BB. UTG folds, button moves all-in for 800. I fold, and then BB calls. I'm thinking this is it, especially when I see the cards. The BB has QQ, and the short stack has 55. On the flop, I see a 5. Yuck!!! He's made a set. Like your nasty 100 year old rich great-aunt who just won't die. No queens on the turn or river, and he doubles up. Now he has 1700 chips and he's a real threat to me. His getting lucky as a 4:1 dog put him in a good position.
The blinds were now 100/200 with a $25 ante. As (his ) luck would have it, he goes all-in again pre flop. This time the chip leader calls. The chip leader turns over JJ, the vilian turns over AA. This hand was very bad for me even though I was not involved. The aces were good, and the short stack now had ten times the amount of chips he had when we first were at four players. I now was in the position of being just outside of the money with the shortes stack.
My play started to fall apart here. The blinds were rising fast, and I was now in a heated battle for third place. I felt like I really needed to make a move. I thought I had my opportunity when I was on the SB. I had AdQd and it was folded to me. I had made a bunch of steals against the BB, and I figured this time would be no different. I raised it up to 800. He comes over the top and puts me all-in. I don't beleive he is defending his blinds. This goes against his weak-tight play I have seen so far. If his hand was not good, he would have folded. I thought long and hard, and finally decided to fold, leaving $800 on the table. He showed his cards AcKc. It was a good fold, but the damage was done. I was now down to 1600 chips. I had a dry spell and the blinds whittled me down to 1000 chips. I guess I just got desperate. I was UTG with 66 and decided to just push right there. It was folded around to the chip leader. He decides to call. He turns over 9T offsuit. Of course, you know how it always goes. The chip leader calls you down with crap and wins. A ten on the river and I'm history.
Because tournaments have such a large luck factor, I've been trying to take a long view of them. Since I can't rate myself in terms of +/- BB/hr, I've taken to dividing my finish position by the total number of entrants to come up with sort of an inverse batting average (lower number is better). I figure that at least gives me a yardstick to measure my progress over the long term, and eventually the luck should even out...
