Everyone at the table has enough chips to just barely cover you. It's fairly early in the tourney so the stacks are all pretty deep versus the blinds. You're dealt 7h8d in the big blind and get to take an unraised flop with 5 others.
Flop comes down double-suited with the 6s 9s 10c. You flopped the nut straight. Small blinds checks and you bet out half the pot to not scare anyone away. Someone after you moves in and they're called by one more then it's folded up to you and you will close the action. So you're facing two all-ins that have you covered. What do you do now?
I'd say with those pot odds you should call, but be weary that one or both players are on the come for the flush draw. Unfortunately, your position screws you in this, as if you were acting after those two, you could see whether they are betting on the come or not. If they both have two spades, with two on the board, 13% chance of a third spade hitting. Call i say.
There is absolutely no question in my mind that calling is the ONLY option. I don't see how you could fold the nuts here...and actually I think I'd rather have both calling...hopefully they are both on the flush draw and have 2 less outs each. Even if both of these draws combined, maybe a flush draw and a flopped set were to leave you a slight underdog the pot odds easily justify a call. I can't think of any good reason to fold this hand unless someone is going to theorize that its early in the WSOP championship event and you don't want to risk your tourney on this hand...but even still I am in it to win it...not just outlast half of the field.
Yes, the kneejerk reaction is to call. You got the nuts right? Heads-up, I think there's no question for the call, but is this hand truly strong enough to withstand overcalling with two more cards to come? Pokerchris got it right when he said chant "No Pair, No flush!" I should have stated in my original post that our opponents are given enough credit to not call with a non-nut draw, these are some of the numbers that I worked up. It seems people are trying to find reasons to call here, for example saying that BOTH opponents are on the same flush draw. With that in mind, here are the numbers I worked up from http://www.twodimes.net , which is an awesome site btw.
All of these results have positive expectation compared to the price you get, but you're just getting slightly better than 2:1 from the pot. If you do get outdrawn then you're out of the tournament. So it would be profitable to make the overcall in a cash game but in a tourney your tourney life is at stake and I think there are better edges to push, especially since you've made a relatively small investment into this hand, give or take 4 big blinds, and your stack will still be plenty deep if you do decide to get away from the hand.
I figure that my opponents have this range of hands. We will assume that at least one of the opponents in all situations will have the nut flush draw. The other player has this possible range of hands. A set, an openend straight draw, 2 pair or top pair/top kicker. If your opponent has something freakish like the 7s8s then he's freerolling on you for all the pot, but I don't find that likely enough to worry about.
Here's the numbers:
Situation 1: You vs flush draw & set
pokenum -h 7c 8d - as 3s - th tc -- 6s ts 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ts 6s 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7c 8d 348 38.54 551 61.02 4 0.44 0.387
As 3s 230 25.47 669 74.09 4 0.44 0.256
Tc Th 321 35.55 578 64.01 4 0.44 0.357
Situation 2: You vs nut flush draw & nut openend straight
pokenum -h 7c 8d - as 3s - jh qd -- 6s ts 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ts 6s 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7c 8d 406 44.96 497 55.04 0 0.00 0.450
As 3s 342 37.87 561 62.13 0 0.00 0.379
Qd Jh 155 17.17 748 82.83 0 0.00 0.172
Situation 3: You vs nut flush draw & Top 2 pair
pokenum -h 7c 8d - as 3s - tc 9c -- 6s ts 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ts 6s 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7c 8d 458 50.72 441 48.84 4 0.44 0.509
As 3s 276 30.56 623 68.99 4 0.44 0.307
Tc 9c 165 18.27 734 81.28 4 0.44 0.184
Situation 4: You vs nut flush draw & TP/TK
pokenum -h 7c 8d - as 3s - th ac -- 6s ts 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ts 6s 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7c 8d 537 59.47 362 40.09 4 0.44 0.596
As 3s 338 37.43 561 62.13 4 0.44 0.376
Ac Th 24 2.66 875 96.90 4 0.44 0.028
So at worst you will be a 38% favorite, or a 2:1 underdog, and at best you will be a 60% favorite, or a 3:2 favorite. So even in the best case scenario, you will win three time for every two times you lose! Given the earlier statements made about deep stack sizes and small blinds, I think the best play would be to fold the nuts and push a bigger edge later, preferably heads-up where you don't have a third player taking your equity away from you.
This came up on another forum and it really popped my eyes open. I originally plugged in the numbers to see how much of a favorite you actually would be to support my case of calling, but it turns out that I don't feel it's the best play to overcall here. You know you hear that a tournament chip saved is worth more than a tournament chip won and I think this scenario illustrates that point quite sucessfully.
The stipulation that the opponents DO infact have strong drawing hands can change the situation. I was considering the fact that there may be one person drawing much slimmer than they thought.
Im gonna let this one simmer for a bit and get back to you on it. I wonder what a player like Negraneu or Jett would do....both ultra aggressive looking to build a big stack early. I just have a hard time seeing laying down the nuts....
Yes, I should have stated in the first post that the opponents are at least decent players and that the opponents will not move in without either the nut flush or nut straight draw, because that does give our opponents more credit than the average $5 PP SNG'er who marries his overcards and then wonders why he went bust. But the actual point I was trying to make is that you need a terribly strong hand to overcall in this situation because you have the nuts NOW but there are still two cards to come. That's a very draw-heavy board and they're all drawing collectively to beat you so you have nothing near a lock.
I don't think a pot-sized bet will chase off the flush draw, he's getting good implied odds to take off at least one more to see if he can bust you here. The flush draw will have position and implied odds, so I think he's going to stick around for a little while in this scenario.
I think an over-aggro player would have made a bet large enough to ruin any draws' implied odds and hopefully just take it down right there, maybe twice the pot. Pushing on the flop would be an option, but it would be a huge overbet and you're probably only going to be called by a hand that you're ahead of now but is drawing to beat you. Heads-up, that's exactly what you want but in a 3-way situation you don't want to be in this spot. It's the inverse of the one player all-in, two players check it down strategy.
sorry for not giving props where they were due...this is a great question, and while I was pretty adament about my first response...I have been pondering this one quite a bit. I hope we can have more great situational questions like this. With that said....give me your thoughts on this...a slight tweak on your scenario:
Same tourney conditions: stack size, stage, etc. In BB you hold JcJh and the flop comes 5s-10c-Js. You make the same bet with the nuts on the flop and you get the same two players pushing all in. If you assume you are up against KxQx and the nut flush draw...what do you do here??? Now, you are in a similar position except that you have outs to improve your hand...outs which pretty much make your hand a lock. So you have flopped the nuts....are likely up against two strong draws which may leave you a slight underdog but you have the best hand, and can improve to a lock nut hand. If you can run these numbers on your program, I'd love to see them and hear thoughts on this one!!!
When I read this originally I thought you'd have to be the world's weakest player to fold, but now I'm far from convinced. Benzine I think you make a great case for folding that hand preflop. Obviously only assuming both are drawing to beat you (with different draws). Now the problem is recognizing this in real time at a table. Situations like this are what remind me I've got a LONG way to go! And also why this game is so intriguing.
I don't have the numbers and look forward to Benzine's eventual post, but I think your situation would be a much easier call because you can still improve. In your case, your oponents still need to catch a card AND dodge a bullet, whereas in the earlier situation if either opponent catches 1 of 2 remaining cards, you're dead. I would expect this difference to raise the EV considerably.
I am going to stick with my answer on the original question. I see and understand the numbers but it is still a call.
Need convincing? Here's why it's still a call.
Are you against good players or not? You can't have it both ways! The arguement that both players have legitamate hands tends to indicate that you are playing against good players. That's fine, but if you are then it is a little tough to accept the idea that if you fold here you can go on to win the tournament without taking some chances. Someone mentioned folding to save chips for when you have a bigger edge heads up. Assuming the other players' skills are close to your own, you won't have an edge unless the cards slap you in the face. If the other players are better than you, then this situation is great for you, you get your money in with an edge and if it holds you triple up and don't risk being outplayed later. So against good players you are better off to let your tournament ride on this hand.
If they are bad players, then you need to add quite a few hands to the possibilities. There could be an overpair (jacks or aces are the two most likely) and any assortment of hands containing nothing but a gutshot, or a pair with a gutshot, or raw out bluff by the first all in guy (probably with AK). So against bad players, chances are that you are a whole lot better off than a 38% favorite on this hand and you should call because of the great pot odds.
My perception on this scenario is that you are trying to say that other players are good players this hand, but by folding you can take advantage of them later? Doesn't work like that.
I hope what I am trying to say makes sense.
