Just busted out of a NL Holdem 10 seater tourney and my final hand went something like this.
Blinds were 100/200 and I had about 2k chips. I'm on the SB with J5d and a few people limped putting the pot to 700 such that I felt odds of 1:7 were worth calling the bb. There was no raise and the flop was 3 diamonds. Party Time I'm first to act and decide to check because the guy on the button has been a serial bettor all tourney and in particular has been pushing (or rather I've been letting him push) me around all tourney. As expected he bets 200 which I call and the rest fold.
The turn card is black and I check again hoping to complete my trap. He bets 400 and I go over the top all in which is a further 1300ish chips for him to call and more critically 2/3rds of his stack. He calls He has absolutely nothing but the ace of diamonds and I'm sure you don't need to guess the river
I've suffered this sort of draw many times before but what REALLY gets to me is the way it must have been obvious to the guy I was setting him up. I'd been folding to him left right and centre all tourney just waiting to lay my trap and yet it somehow evaded him that by calling 2 of his bets and going over the top that I already had a winning hand!!!
So, yes, emotion got the better of me and I had a wee rant in the chat window where I casually requested to know how on earth he could make that call and he said, 'what and you wouldn't'. Erm, let me see - a 1:4ish shot for 2/3rd my stack........................eh, no!!!!!!!!!!
I personally will usually fold a big draw to a bet that gives me bad odds or may put me out of a tourney....but I doubt that your average internet poker player will lay down the nut 4 flush under any circumstances. He could have had the K, Q or A to draw against you and you had already let him put 800 in that pot, so he felt somewhat pot committed. I think you need to take this pot down ASAP by checkraising/the flop or leading out with at least a pot sized bet, although he still might have called you....
you knew he was a bettor. i'm not sure that going all-in was the right move... your jack wasn't exactly very high, you could assume there was a pretty good chance he had a higher diamond, and that its very possible he already had 2 diamonds.
he knew for a fact that if the river was a diamond, he'd win. that's roughly 1 in 5, though it could be different based on assumptions he could make about your cards or the other players' cards (you could assume they didn't fold any high diamonds, at the very least). so 20% of the possible cards on the river would guarantee him the win.
so thats a 20% chance of winning outright. he needs to throw in 1200 on a 4700 chip pot, or 25.5% of the pot. factor in that you could just be bluffing, or you could be holding a single diamond hoping for the flush... give that a 10% chance, and you've justified calling that bet mathematically.
don't know if he bothered calculating any of the odds though... he may have been a very good player, or he may have just been a loose fish getting lucky cuz everyone else at the table was a tightass.
anyway, i probably wouldn't have gone all in. the jack was too low.
There was no doubt in my mind that he didn't have the made flush. He liked to click the 'bet button' out of principal just to take down pots and would usually bet more when he had a hand and wanted return. His committment to the post also wasn't that high because he was betting the minimum. The pot was 800 + both our 200 on the flop + his 400 on the turn which is 1400. My all in bet was at least 1400 taking the pot to 2800 with him needing at least a grand to go. Approximatly 3:1 pot odds with nowhere near the drawing odds to justify the call. I regard myself as a good player and there isn't a chance in hell I'd have made that call be it a tourney or for money.
See it all the time. No he didnt't have the odds to call, but won't lawdown the nut flush draw. You got your money in with the best hand and got outdrew whats the issue? Maybe amd this is a stretch...he knew you were a better player and seized the chance to knock you out of the tournament even if he had to take a chance to do it.
