I was playing 2/4 on a loose passive table. On average, 7 people see the flop and 8 of 10 flops are unraised.
I picked up T9c from middle position and called BB. The flop came T94 rainbow. I bet. Button raised. I reraised. Button capped. The guy has a tell and I absolutely knew he wanted me to call. Could I actually be behind? The only way I could be behind is TT, 99, or 44. 2 of those choices were unlikely since I was holding T9. Even if the guy had 44, I was still behind so I slowed down.
I saw the hand to the end checking and just calling. I put the guy on 44 at best and hoped to draw out another T or 9. I also thought there was a possibility he was playing T9, AT or AA just betting the overpair. I wouldn't have put a great player on either of those last 2 hands, but when you see the kinds of hands these guys play, it's entirely possible.
Anyway, you probably guessed it. He held TT and I felt foolish. I knew he wasn't bluffing but I let hope convince me he might be capping with less than top 2 pair. I should have known he had to have at least 2 pair and T4 or 94 aren't typical starting hands. If he had at least 2 pair, either we had the same hand or he did pick up trips. When should I have folded?
In my situation, once raised the very first time should I have folded, called, or reraised?
After he reraised me, should I have called?
Should I have folded or played it out on the turn and river?
On a slightly related note, I know how to compute pot odds and implied odds. But only in relation to the odds of hitting my hand. How do you compute the pot odds in terms of size of pot relative to the odds of your hand winning? So in this case, since the pot was large, was it worth sticking around for a few more bets hoping he over played a weak hand or should I just face it that he had my top 2 pair beaten and fold?
Without number crunching, if you make yourself a 2-1 underdog after the betting flurry on the flop, then checking and calling heads up is well within pot odds with all those preflop callers.
I view pot odds as getting in the way of rational thought sometimes. You may have the odds to call with top two based upon the spectrum of hands he could be holding, but don't let the math take you off your read that it is more than statistically likely that you are drawing near-dead to TT or to 4 outs if he has 44. Under that mode of analysis, your pot odds vanish.
You've gotta pay off with top two and hope he's overplaying top top or QJ or JJ or you drawout. If you had A10, you could call his flop raise, bet out on the turn and fold to a raise. These hands aren't that important unless you are overplaying. You played it ok.
Thanks guys. That makes me feel better and I needed that. I just got back from a short session today and I had these catastrophies.
1) I flopped sets twice (once A's) only to lose each one to a straight. The straights didn't hit until the river on either hand but I called both despite being sure I was beaten. What's the matter with me?
2) I had KK and reraised a guy who reraised me back (preflop). Three hearts fell on the flop and the guy kept betting out. I figured him for AA and probably an Ah. Since I didn't have a single heart and since I put him on at least AA and possibly a flush draw, I folded when he bet on the turn. He turned over TT and took the pot.
3) I found out that my seat won a $15,000 jackpot last night about 15 minutes after I left.
