How many times has this happened to you? You're going along great guns in a tournament when you feel a tap on your shoulder. "Table change," your friendly floorman tells you. And it happens just when you were doing so well; you knew your opponents, you were getting decent cards, and you were winning some pots. Table changes seem to affect the fortunes of tournament players in one of two ways: They go on a rush and amass a mountain of chips, or they face the type of disaster that happened to Shaun, who e-mailed me his story along with an astute analysis of the situation.
This time, I'm writing my appraisal of his comments before you read his account of what happened. First, he analyzed the hand very well, and he played it accordingly. His play and his thinking were correct; he just got unlucky. With this in mind, follow along as Shaun thinks his way through a tough tournament scenario.
"Let me begin by saying that I appreciate all of your writings and look forward to reading your Card Player columns each month, Tom. I think it's great that you answer the questions of fellow players, and I hope you can help me with mine. I haven't found much information about how you should play immediately after switching tables. I met my untimely exit in the last no-limit hold'em tourney I played immediately after a table change. Here's what happened:
"We were at the second level with $15-$30 blinds. The average chip count at this point was $1,400, and I had about $1,000. I limped in from middle position with K-Q offsuit, the small blind (with $500 in chips) made a minimum raise, and the big blind (with $2,500 in chips) called. I also called.
"The flop came K-7-3 rainbow. The small blind bet out $30, and the big blind raised to $500! Now, I had to make my decision. My gut instinct told me he was trying to buy the pot, since his bet put the small blind all in. I thought a call was weak here, because if I had the big blind beat, but not the small blind, calling would not win me anything but a side pot. Also, I knew that if I flat-called, I wouldn't be getting any cards to make my hand much stronger unless a queen fell. So, in my mind, I was left with only two alternatives: raise or fold.
"With a 7 and a 3 on the board, I thought he could have made a set, but that would be a very strong hand with this board, and I thought his bet was too high for that. So, he could have made two pair, or kings with an ace kicker, or kings with a lower kicker. Once again, I eliminated two pair because of how much he bet. If the big blind had been raising with a hand like A-K, he easily could have flat-called and gotten all of the small blind's chips on a later betting round. I figured the big blind would have reraised preflop with A-K, so the only hand I thought he could have was a king with a smaller kicker. Therefore, I put him on either K-10 or K-J. Since I figured I had the best kicker with my K-Q, I decided to reraise all in.
"The small blind folded and we turned our cards over. Sure enough, it was my K-Q versus the big blind's K-J. The next card off the deck was a jack, and I was eliminated.
"In hindsight, I realized I had been basing my thoughts on how a typical player would play, but since I had just switched tables, I really had no idea of how this person would react. I thought that perhaps I had overplayed my hand, and should have just folded. I wasn't mad that he caught the jack (OK, maybe I was a little bit angry), because I know that luck is a part of every tournament. I was mad because I thought that even though my analysis had been correct, perhaps at this point in the tourney, not knowing my opponent, I should have just folded and kept my $1,000 for a better spot."
In Shaun's scenario, I would gladly put my money in against a player who I figured had only three outs. If Shaun continues to think these situations through like he did this one and makes the right decisions, he will prosper in the end. And I thank Shaun for his advance writing of my closing line, so that I didn't have to think of one myself: "Tom, with your advice, maybe one day after our tables are switched, we'll meet in the winner's circle!"
